This blog is committed to the serious study and valid understanding of technical analysis and its objective application to stock selection, risk management and execution primarily in the context of trading stocks listed in the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE).

Saturday, April 5, 2008

PSEi 4/4/08 WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

OUTLOOK
The index retreats 1.7% for the day but pulls off a fractionally higher close for the week. The intermediate trend continues its steady decline and the PSEI is in the red YTD -17.7%. It is encouraging to note that the PSE's breadth indicators - Advance Decline Line, Up Down Volume, and Net Foreign Buying (see charts in the sidebar) - have stabilized and that this week's foreign participation posted 5 successive days of net foreign buying adding up to P1.8B. This broad optimism is evident in the advance that began mid-March but does not resonate in the 2 larger trends. A few weeks ago, the index breached the lower threshhold of the double bottom but the near term uptrend averted for the time being whatever potentially huge decline the pattern foretold. The major and intermediate trends stick to their respective tendencies while the short term uptrend stalls and could transition to realign with the declining trend. Using the measured move method, the secondary downtrend offers a medium term objective of 2,500.

PRICE AND TURNOVER
Close: 2,983.04 * Change: TODAY -51.77(-1.71%) WEEKLY +27.02 (+0.91%) YTD -638.56 (-17.65%) * Value: 3,001,668,000

MARKET BREADTH
Net Adv Issues: -48 * Net Foreign Buying: TODAY +209,715,736 WEEKLY +1,830,870,657 YTD -14,834,030,963 * Net Up Volume: -330,866,300

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Primary consolidation * Secondary downtrend * Short trem uptrend * Major resistance 3,300 * Immediate resistance 3,000 * Support 2,800 * Potential double top on the weekly chart * Potential (Measured Move) TP 2,500 on the daily chart

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