This blog is committed to the serious study and valid understanding of technical analysis and its objective application to stock selection, risk management and execution primarily in the context of trading stocks listed in the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE).

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

PSEi 7/9/08

PRICE AND TURNOVER
Close: 2,481.53
Change: 30.98(1.26%)
Value: 1,918,803,000

MARKET BREADTH
Net Advancing Issues: 34
Net Up Volume: 757,077,020
Net Foreign Buying: -77,461,788

TRENDS
* UNDEFINED PRIMARY TREND | Broken UP trendline | Corrective wave | Prior resistance 3896
* INTERMEDIATE DOWNTREND | Directional wave | Prior support 2510 | Prior resistance 2903
* SHORT TERM DOWNTREND | Corrective wave| Prior support 2289 | Prior resistance 2650

CHART WATCH
The PSEi breaks the minor down trendline and the 15d MA. This signifies that the trend is changing. Changing into what is the question everyone has in mind. Following are potential scenarios:

(1) The index rallies and fails to break the 2650 resistance leading to a break below support and a resumption of the downtrend, or

(2) The index rallies and fails to break the 2650 resistance leading to a consolidation in the minor trend that could ultimately lead to
(2.b) a resumption of the minor downtrend, or
(2.a) a successful retest of resistance launching a reversal of the minor downtrend and a corrective wave of the intermediate downtrend.

(3) The index rallies and breaks resistance leading to a reversal of the minor downtrend and a corrective wave of the intermediate downtrend.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
As the chart appears now, technical rules constrain me to take the view that scenarios (1) and (2.b) are likely.

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