REVISIT OF TRADING PLAN ISSUED 4/9/09

On 4/9/09 I posted the following trading plan [POTENTIAL TRADES THIS COMING WEEK]. Let's revisit them and see how they panned out. Of the 6 setups, 4 buy triggers initiated trades (BDO, BPI, JFC, and MBT) while the remaining 2 did not (FGEN and PLTL). For an average holding period of 32 days, the 4 trades averaged a return of 14.9% before deducting commissions and other charges.

Trading plan posted on 4/9/09.

STOCK|TARGET|STOP|ENTRY
BDO | 37.00 | 24.00 | 28.50
BPI | 43.00 | 33.50 | 37.00
FGEN | 28.75 | 21.50 | 24.00
JFC | 52.50 | 43.50 | 46.50
MBT | 37.50 | 25.00 | 29.50
PLTL | 10.60 | 8.00 | 8.90

Theoretical trading outcome for the period 4/9/09 until 5/29/09.

BDO
- Buy trigger of 28.5 hit on 4/16/09
- Protective stop of 24.0 untouched
- Hits a high of 34.5 on 5/7/09
- Potential profit of 6.0 per share or 21.1% return
- Holding period of 25 days

BPI
- Buy trigger of 37 hit on 4/13/09
- Protective stop of 33.5 untouched
- Hits a high of 47.5 on 5/18/09
- Potential profit of 10.5 per share or 28.4% return
- Holding period of 35 days

FGEN
- Buy trigger of 24 untouched
- No trade initiated

JFC
- Buy trigger of 46.5 hit on 4/17/09
- Protective stop of 43.5 untouched
- Hits a high of 48.5 on 5/27/09
- Potential profit of 2.0 per share or 4.3% return
- Holding period of 40 days

MBT
- Buy trigger of 29.5 hit on 4/13/09
- Protective stop of 25 untouched
- Hits a high of 36.5 on 5/11/09
- Potential profit of 7.0 per share or 23.7% return
- Holding period of 38 days

PLTL
- Buy trigger of 8.9 untouched
- No trade initiated

POTENTIAL SHORT TERM TRADES, 2/18/09

A list of potential technical short term trades. Keep sensible and firm stops to limit potential losses in case the setups disappoint.

AEV
4m uptrend
180d>price>15d>60d
stoch and macd supportive, volume below average
4d rally, gap up
potential trade: wait for pullback, buy at support

AP
4m uptrend
180d>price>15d>60d
stoch and macd supportive
4d rally, 1d pullback
potential trade: buy at support

APX
2m uptrend
price>180d>15d>60d
stoch, macd and volume supportive
5d rally
potential trade: wait for pullback, buy at support

BPC
2m uptrend
price>180d>15d>60d
stoch and macd supportive, volume waning
4d rally, 1d pullback
potential trade: buy at support

FPH
4m uptrend
price>180d>15d>60d
stoch (-), macd (+), volume supportive
5d rally, 4d retreat
potential trade: buy at support

MER
9d rally, 3d retreat
price>15d>60>180
stoch and macd slowing, volume supportive
10d rally, 3d retreat, ODR
potential trade: buy at support

MWC
1m uptrend
MAs, stoch and macd supportive
7d rally, 6d retreat, ODR
potential trade: buy at support

PCOR
2m consolidation coming out of a 6m downtrend that ended Dec-08
symmetrical triangle
stoch and macd exhibiting upward momentum
volume expanding on rallies
2nd close above 5.3 resistance in 3d
potential trade: buy if price breaks out of the pattern, potential tp of 7.20 based on ht of the pattern

DJIA 6/16/08

PRICE AND TURNOVER
Close 12,269.08
Change -38.27 (0.31%)
Volume 689.3M

MARKET BREADTH NYSE
Net Advancing Issues +772
Net New High -39
Net Up Volume +680,027,453

TRENDS
*PROVISIONAL PRIMARY DOWNTREND | Directional wave | Prior support 11634 | Prior resistance 13136
*INTERMEDIATE DOWNTREND | Broken trendline | Directional wave | Prior Support 11731 | Resistance 13136
*SHORT TERM PROVISIONAL DOWNTREND | Directional wave | Prior Support 12076 | Resistance 12610

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The index is on a correction rally within the minor downtrend. It is likely that this countertrend will encounter selling pressure at or near the trendline or around the 12400 area and turn into the next downleg of the short term decline.

DGTL 4/1/08 BREAKOUT FADEOUT

DGTL gives back 75% (0.12) of yesterday's 0.16 advance settling 0.02 below 1.60 - a level that we have seen reverse its role from acting as support in Jan-2008 and subsequently as resistance in Feb-2008 and Mar-2008. The stock's decline is as steep as yesterday's advance except that today's volume is noticeably lighter at only 701,000sh. Yesterday's volume is 14,842,000sh - over 21x today's accompanying turnover and close to 9x that of the 15-day MA - supporting the validity of the breakaway move. However, it is price, not volume, that ultimately matters, and I will be hard pressed to find a more illustrative example of this object lesson than this recent 2-day extreme turnaround. The more aggressive trader would have entered yesterday during the frenzy, and the less risk tolerant would have waited for a continuation signal today before participating. That is not to say that one technique is better than the other because there are obvious trade-offs between the 2 systems. The aggressive trader stands to be stopped earlier with a small loss in case the breakout fizzles but if the advance prospers, he gets to capture the bigger portion of the up move by participating earlier. By waiting for a second day confirmation, the risk averse trader avoids taking a premature loss in case a quick fade out occurs but if the breakout promptly catches fire he gets to climb on board a bit later in the move sacrificing the early portion of the advance. In any case, I will be looking closely at the critical level of 1.60 and whether (a) another role reversal is in the offing that could provide a base from where the stock price stabilizes and continues its advance or (b) it continues to act as resistance that sends the stock re-entering the confines of the 1.42-1.60 trading band. For those who participated yesterday, the focus of the trade now shifts to risk management and swift execution of stops in case a range pattern re emerges.

PRICE AND TURNOVER
Close: 1.5800 * Change: -0.1200 (-7.06%) * Value: 1,117,800

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Primary trend undefined * Intermediate uptrend * Short term consolidation * Prior support 1.42 * Potential support (role reversal) 1.60 * Resistance 1.84 * Faded breakout of 3-month range * Potential price objective of breakout move 1.84

* Personal Disclosure: I own a trivial number of shares of DGTL.

DGTL 3/31/08 BREAKOUT

DGTL breaks away from its 3-month basing pattern on strong buying by broker ABN-AMRO. It advances 9.0% and closes at the high accompanied by a YTD record volume turnover. This stock has been in a secondary uptrend that began Aug-2007 followed by 2 steep intervening retracements exceeding 61.8% that accounts for a technically slow and dicey advance but a clear uptrend nonetheless. The height of the pattern and the Dec-2008 peak converges to offer a potential breakout objective of 1.84. With a new and higher support at 1.42, this stock's uptrend since Aug-2007 has so far defied the broad market downtrend that started Oct-2007.

PRICE AND TURNOVER
OHLC: 1.56-1.70-1.54-1.70
Change: +0.14 (+8.97%)
Value: 24,076,440 * Net Foreign Buying: +5,851,640

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Primary trend undefined * Intermediate uptrend * Short term consolidation (interrupted by a breakout) * Prior support 1.42 * Potential support (role reversal) 1.60 * Resistance 1.84 * Breakout (6.25% penetrating close) of 3-month range * Potential price objective of breakout move 1.84.

* Personal Disclosure: I own a trivial number of shares of DGTL.