Whipsaw: Technical Analysis | PSEi | DJIA

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Monday, October 27, 2008

Entries and Blog Access

Due to a busy schedule, I will be limiting my posts to weekly reports until my workload eases sometime in November 2008. Due to the historical importance of currently unfolding market movements, I will be allowing public access to the blog starting this week until December 31, 2008.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

BLOGGER INTERNAL ERROR

There appears to be internal issues with Blogger. Somehow their system has started to refuse uploading images and instead has been returning this error message: "This image could not be uploaded due to an internal error." I have posted this issue on the Blogger Help discussion group where i found that it has affected a majority of bloggers and that no remedy is available as of yet. Until this issue is resolved, I will be unable to post the usual daily charts and technical analysis.

Monday, July 28, 2008

BLOG ACCESS

In order to give way to new viewers and limit access to this blog to those genuinely interested in technical analysis, the current list of authorized blog subscribers will be purged on 31 Jul 2008. If you want to be included in the new list of invited blog readers commencing 01 Aug 2008, please post your request in the comment section of this specific post (or email me at whipsaw_p6chat@yahoo.com) by indicating your email address. Thank you.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

LIMITED BLOG SITE ACCESS STARTING 6/1/08

Starting Jun-1-2008 this blog site will be accessible only by invitation. If you find the content of this blog useful and want to continue reading beyond this month please write an email request (do not post your request in the "COMMENTS" section) to whipsaw.p6chat@gmail.com or whipsaw_p6chat@yahoo.com so i can send you an invite by return email and authorize your access. Due to Blogger.com constraints, a maximum of 100 invitations will be issued. Thank you.

Whipsaw's Library

* CYCLES: A TRIBUTE TO J.M.HURST by Brian Millard

* ELLIOT WAVE PRINCIPLE: KEY TO MARKET BEHAVIOR by Frost and Prechter

* FIBONACCI APPLICATIONS & STRATEGIES FOR TRADERS by Robert Fischer

* FORECASTING FINANCIAL MARKETS: THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SUCCESSFUL INVESTING by Tony Plummer

* JAPANESE CANDLESTICK CHARTING TECHNIQUES by Steve Nison

* POINT & FIGURE COMMODITY & STOCK TRADING TECHNIQUES by Kermit Zieg Jr.

* PROFIT MAGIC OF STOCK TRANSACTION TIMING by J.M.Hurst

* TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EXPLAINED by Martin Pring

* TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF STOCK TRENDS by Edwards and Magee

* TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS by John Murphy

* TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE COMPLETE RESOURCE FOR FINANCIAL MARKET TECHNICIANS by Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EDUCATION

(Excerpts from J.Murphy)

BASIC PREMISE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. Market action discounts everything.
2. Prices move in trends.
3. History repeats itself.

"The technician believes that anything that can possibly affect the price - fundamentally, politically, psychologically, or otherwise - is actually reflected in the price of that market. It follows, therefore, that a study of price action is all that is required. All the technician is actually claiming is that price action should reflect shifts in supply and demand. If demand exceeds supply, prices should rise. If supply exceeds demand, prices should fall. This action is the basis of all economic and fundamental forecasting."

"The concept of trend is absolutely essential to the technical approach. The whole purpose of charting the price action of a market is to identify trends in early stages of their development for the purpose of trading in the direction of those trends. There is a corollary to the premise that prices move in trends - a trend is more likely to continue than to reverse. Another way to state this corollary is that a trend in motion will continue in the same direction until it reverses. " (p.3)

"Much of the body of technical analysis and the study of market action has to do with the study of human psychology. Chart patterns, for example, which have been identified and categorized over the past one hundred years, reflect certain pictures that appear on price charts. These pictures reveal the bullish or bearish psychology of the market. Since these patterns have worked well in the past, it is assumed that they will continue to work well in the future. They are based on the study of human psychology, which tends not to change."

BASIC TENETS OF THE DOW THEORY
1. Averages discount everything.
2. The market has 3 trends.
3. Major trends have 3 phases.
4. The averages must confirm each other.
5. Volume must confirm the trend.
6. A trend is assumed to be in effect until it gives definite signals that it has reversed.

TREND FOLLOWING
"The whole purpose of charting the price action of a market is to identify trends in early stages of their development for the purpose of trading in the direction of those trends."

SPOTTING REVERSALS
"The most difficult task for a Dow theorist, or any trend follower for that matter, is being able to distinguish between a normal secondary correction in an existing trend and the first leg of a new trend in the opposite direction." (p.29)

REVERSAL SCENARIOS (p.29)
1. Failure swing
2. Non-failure swing

CLASSIFICATION OF TRENDS
1. Major (or primary)
2. Intermediate (or secondary)
3. Near term (short term or minor)

TRADING TIME HORIZON
"As a general statement, most trend following approaches focus on the intermediate trend, which may last for several months. The near term trend is used primarily for timing purposes. In an intermediate uptrend, short term setbacks would be used to initiate long positions." (p.54)

THE ELEMENTS OF SUCCESSFUL TRADING
1. Price forecasting
2. Trading tactics
3. Money management

TRADING TACTICS
1. Tactics on breakouts
2. The breaking of trendlines
3. The use of support and resistance
4. The use of % retracements
5. The use of gaps

MONEY MANAGEMENT
1. Maximum loss limit per trade
2. Risk reward ratio
3. Fund allocation

PROTECTIVE STOPS
"For purposes of placing protective stops, support and resistance levels are most valuable." (p.401)

BUILDING BLOCKS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. Support and resistance
2. Trendlines and channels
3. Percentage retracements
4. Speed resistance lines
5. Gaps
6. Reversal days

(Excerpts from M.Pring)

ONE AND TWO-BAR PRICE PATTERNS
One and two-bar patterns reflect changes in psychology that have very short term influence on prices.

1. Outside bars
2. Inside bars
3. Two bar reversal
4. Key reversal bars
5. Exhaustion bars
6. Pinocchio bars

Monday, October 27, 2008

Entries and Blog Access

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

BLOGGER INTERNAL ERROR

Monday, July 28, 2008

BLOG ACCESS

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

LIMITED BLOG SITE ACCESS STARTING 6/1/08

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