DJIA 4/2/08 STOCK MARKET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Yesterday's big move is stymied today as the Fed chair testifies in Washington [AP Bernanke Says Recession Possible Wednesday April 2, 4:52 pm ET] and as crude oil price spikes to $104.83 [AP Wall Street Pulls Back As Oil Spikes Wednesday April 2, 6:10 pm ET]. The Dow trades within a band finally ending a bit off the lows giving back 45.44pts. The short term uptrend remains valid crossing over the intermediate trendline yesterday and in effect interrupting the secondary downtrend. We could probably see the index move up and down between 12,800 and the ascending trendline for the meantime. A correction that bounces off the short term trendline will be encouraging since that will imply some degree of momentum accompanying the Dow's advance toward the very significant resistance level. Don't expect the uptrend to simply march over 12,800. If it does give way eventuallly, the likelihood is that this happens after 2 of 3 attempts preceded by a tight compression below the resistance line. At this point, the odds still favor the short term advance being cut down at or near this level. But odds can and do change with every new signal that the charts issue. That's why I think it's important to consider all possible outcomes.

MARKET BREADTH
Net Adv Issues: +603 * Net New Highs: +25 * Net Up Volume: +744,074,687

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Primary consolidation * Secondary downtrend interrupted * Short term uptrend * Major support 11,600-11,700 * Minor support 12,200 * Resistance 12,800 * Rounding top on the weekly chart * Potential double bottom on the daily chart