PSEi 4/2/08 TRENDLINE BREAK ... CHANGING TREND

The local index gaps up at the open and advances to close +2.6% near the high. Turnover is above the 15-day MA. At this level, the index breaches the intermediate downtrend line. This is significant because a trendline break is usually an early signal of a change in trend. But a trend change is not a straightaway synonym of a reversal. A change in trend could mean any of the following: (a) a reversal of the current up or down direction-the most common notion, (b) a switch from a directional to a non-directional tendency otherwise known as consolidation or sideways movement, or (c) a shift in the slope of the current directional trend which is merely an acceleration or weakening of speed or momentum. With these in mind, we must resist the temptation to anticipate or jump to conclusions prematurely. We need to wait for further signals to show us in what direction the new trend is heading before we can chart an appropriate trading plan. It is valuable to be able to distinguish which signals are actionable versus those that merely clues us in to a potentially significant and imminent price movement.

PRICE AND TURNOVER
Close: 3,048.31 * Change: +78.48 (+2.64%) * Value: 3,488,681,000

MARKET BREADTH
Net Adv Issues: 62 * Net Foreign Buying: 139,783,743 * Net Up Volume: 306,428,270

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Primary consolidation * Secondary downtrend * Short term uptrend * Fib retracement (38.2%) 3,000 * Prior Support 2,800 * Prior resistance 3,300 * Potential trendline resistance 3,000 * Potential (role reversal) resistance 3,000 * Broken intermediate trendline.